Trading Update 28th September 2025

Spot Gold Hits Highs as U.S. Data and Fed Outlook Shift Sentiment

The week of 21–28 September saw gold maintain strong momentum, driven by safe-haven demand, hopes for rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions. Spot gold oscillated around record highs, with traders parsing every macro or political hint. The rise in gold prices affected equity sectors, particularly miners and defensive stocks, and reinforced gold’s role as a hedge.

Volatility remained evident. In some sessions, gold surged on hawkish central bank cues or soft economic data; in others, it retraced as yields rose or the U.S. dollar strengthened. Still, the broader trend remained bullish, supported by expectations of further monetary easing in the U.S. and lingering global uncertainty.

Below is a breakdown of key moves in spot gold, how stocks responded, and the political factors behind the week’s price action.

Spot Gold Price Movements

At the start of the week, spot gold traded around $3,685 per ounce (based on historical pricing).
Soon after, momentum pushed gold above $3,720, testing fresh highs as rate cut expectations firmed. Analysts noted that gold repeatedly flirted with new peaks early in the week.

Midweek, gold climbed further following dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and weak economic data. Traders saw that rate cuts would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. By mid-week, spot gold was firmly above $3,750 in intraday moves, although some profit-taking trimmed gains ahead of the weekend.

Overall, gold’s weekly range stretched from the mid-$3,680s to highs near $3,760+, with occasional pullbacks when U.S. yields or the dollar spiked. But its base held firm, and the trend remained upward.

Stock Market & Sector Reactions

Gold’s gains were a boost for gold mining shares, producing strong performance among miners and junior producers. Equity investors rotated capital into these names while moving away from rate-sensitive sectors.
Defensive and utility stocks also gained some favour, as investors sought stability amid macro uncertainty. Those sectors are traditionally seen as less vulnerable during turbulent times.

Conversely, financial stocks and parts of the technology sector felt pressure when bond yields climbed. Rising yields make borrowing costlier and dampen growth expectations, which in turn chipped at equity valuations in rate-sensitive segments.

Additionally, broader indices were cautious. In many markets, gains were modest as participants balanced the strength of gold with hawkish signals from central banks and macroeconomic surprises. Equity volatility rose toward the end of the week, mirroring gold’s own tug-of-war.

Political, Policy & Macro Drivers

U.S. Fed & Rate Cut Expectations

The most significant driver was the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue cutting rates. Market participants largely viewed a 25-basis-point cut as priced in, and any signals of further easing strengthened gold’s appeal.
Weak economic data, especially labour and inflation figures, added weight to the dovish camp. Traders believed that lower rates would reduce real yields, which tends to favour gold.

Still, the Fed remained cautious in its communication—any hint of hawkishness or reluctance to ease further triggered bouts of volatility in gold and equities.

Dollar & Real Yields

Gold is inversely related to the U.S. dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) yields. During the week, when the dollar weakened, gold found support. Conversely, brief episodes of dollar strength and rises in real yields pressured gold in some sessions.

Because gold yields no interest, its attractiveness depends heavily on what U.S. yields do relative to inflation. When yields fell or were capped, gold gained.

Geopolitical & Global Risk Factors

Geopolitical tension, especially around Russia/Ukraine, continued to cast a risk premium on safe havens. Any escalation or disruption contributed to investor flows into gold.
Uncertainty over supply chains, energy prices, and sanctions risk fed into gold’s safe-haven status. Political developments in the Middle East and in Europe also loomed in the background, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge.

Central Banks & ETF Demand

Central bank buying remained a structural tailwind. Many institutions across Asia and emerging markets continued to increase allocations to gold. Meanwhile, inflows into gold-backed ETFs rose, signalling that institutional and retail demand were reinforcing the rally.

The combination of monetary policy bias and demand from institutional buyers helped give gold staying power through the week.

Tips for Spread Betting Traders

• Watch U.S. data closely: Key releases—CPI, jobs, retail—can trigger sharp moves in gold.
• Monitor yields and the dollar: Rising real yields or a strong dollar can cap upside.
• Use stop losses and scale positions: Volatility is high. Avoid being overexposed.
• Track central bank statements: Any shift in tone or guidance may change trend expectations swiftly.
• Pair with correlated sectors: Gold miners often move in tandem with gold; financials and tech may diverge based on shifts in interest rates.

Conclusion

The period from September 21 to 28, 2025, reinforced gold’s appeal as a haven amid strong macroeconomic and political forces. Spot prices climbed and tested new highs as hopes for a rate cut, weak U.S. data, ETF flows, and geopolitical risk combined. While intraday pullbacks occurred, gold maintained its support and continued to exhibit an upward bias.

Gold’s strength pulled in equity flows toward mining and defensive sectors, while pressuring rate-sensitive names. The key takeaway for traders is that gold remains highly sensitive to any shift in U.S. monetary policy, real yields, or global risk sentiment.

In the future, central bank commentary, macro surprises, and geopolitical events will continue to command gold’s direction. For your spread betting audience, this means staying nimble, respecting risk, and always being prepared for surprises in both directions.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.