Trading Update 29th June 2025

Gold Price Analysis: What Moved the Market This Week

Throughout the week from June 22nd to 29th, 2025, spot gold traded within a relatively tight but active range, fluctuating between US$3,256 and US$3,368 per ounce. Early in the week, gold prices broke above the US$3,350 mark, driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty and a decline in the US dollar. These factors temporarily revived gold’s appeal as a defensive asset.

However, sentiment turned mid-week as hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve and climbing US Treasury yields began to pressure precious metals. Gold subsequently dropped below its 50-day moving average, a development that many technical traders viewed as a short-term bearish indicator. By Friday’s close, spot gold had retraced to approximately US$3,274.

Analysts noted that a break below the key US$3,295 support level could open the door to a deeper pullback. The market remains on edge, balancing between defensive demand and yield-sensitive pricing. Many traders adopted a reactive approach—taking profits on strength while re-entering cautiously at support levels—underscoring gold’s unique mix of risk-off demand and macroeconomic vulnerability.

Gold Stocks & ETFs: A Snapshot

Gold-related equities closely followed the metal’s movements, reflecting the overall tone of caution and opportunity. Major producers, such as Barrick Gold and Newmont, experienced gains of around 3–4% in the early part of the week as gold prices rallied. However, these gains were short-lived. As spot prices cooled, shares in leading miners gave back up to 2%, mirroring the reversal in bullion.

Volatility was more pronounced in junior mining stocks and exploration companies, which tend to be more sensitive to swings in sentiment. The risk-on and risk-off flows necessitated quick repositioning for active traders in the sector.

Gold-focused ETFs such as GDX (VanEck Gold Miners) and GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) reflected the underlying commodity’s choppy path. These funds rose with early-week optimism but eventually closed the week near breakeven. Many spread bettors and retail traders used these vehicles to hedge physical gold exposure or to build correlation-based strategies between gold and equities.

Political & Geopolitical Influences

Geopolitics remained a critical backdrop for gold this week. A combination of military developments, financial system scepticism, and reserve diversification efforts all played roles in shaping market behaviour.

In the Middle East, heightened tensions escalated when the United States conducted targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. This significantly boosted safe-haven interest in gold at the start of the week. Though prices later softened, market participants remain highly sensitive to further instability in the region.

Meanwhile, European political developments added a new twist to the situation. Politicians in Germany and Italy reignited calls for repatriating their national gold reserves currently held in the United States. While no transfers have occurred, the growing narrative of financial independence has sparked debate around gold’s role in national security and sovereign wealth.

In Asia, gold continued to benefit from steady central bank purchases. China, in particular, remains active in increasing its gold reserves as part of a broader effort to reduce its reliance on the US dollar and strengthen the credibility of its digital currency initiatives. These structural shifts, though gradual, reinforce long-term support for gold demand on a global scale.

Though these factors did not produce a breakout week, they reinforced gold’s role as a store of value in uncertain times. Without immediate escalations, however, the metal remained confined within technical boundaries.

Macro & Interest Rate Drivers

Macroeconomic dynamics exerted considerable influence on gold price behaviour. The dominant theme was the rising cost of capital and its impact on non-yielding assets.

The US Federal Reserve took a firmer stance on interest rates, suggesting that rate cuts may not begin until 2026. This prompted a rise in US two-year Treasury yields, which breached the 5% threshold. In turn, the dollar index strengthened, making gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

As the week progressed, traders awaited the upcoming PCE inflation data, a key input into the Fed’s policy decisions. This caution capped gains in gold and contributed to sideways movement in the second half of the week.

Additionally, bond market volatility added another layer of pressure. Rising real yields (adjusted for inflation) tend to erode gold’s competitiveness as an investment, particularly when risk sentiment remains subdued.

While geopolitical stories offered support, the macro narrative—centred on higher-for-longer interest rates and a robust dollar—kept gold from making a sustained move higher. These competing forces left the market at a near-term crossroads.

Spread Betting Insight & Trading Tips

For spread bettors and active traders, the past week offered a blend of opportunity and caution. With intraday volatility averaging 1–2%, there was plenty of room for short-term trades.

Key technical levels proved essential. Immediate support at US$3,295 and resistance around US$3,368 helped define the trading zones. Traders who entered near these levels and managed positions tightly found ample scalp opportunities.

Correlation strategies were popular. Many investors used combinations of gold and gold-miner ETFs, or physical bullion and currency pairs (such as XAU/USD), to hedge directional risk. As gold stalled, interest shifted to relative value setups rather than outright directional plays.

The interest rate environment also required hedging strategies. Gold trades paired with short dollar positions or long bond futures helped to neutralise some macro pressure and provided more stable portfolio structures.

Data-driven strategies remain essential. With inflation and interest rate guidance in focus, surprises in macroeconomic data could quickly upend established trends. Spread bettors should adjust position sizes and stop-loss placements ahead of key announcements.

Outlook: What to Watch Next

Spot gold closed the week at approximately US$3,274, near its lower technical boundary. Looking ahead, several catalysts could shape the path forward:

• US Inflation Data: The upcoming PCE release may offer clarity on the Fed’s next move, impacting both dollar strength and gold’s trajectory.

• Middle East Tensions: Any new flashpoints could trigger another safe-haven rally.

• Treasury Yield Direction: Continued strength in yields could weigh on gold, while a pullback might offer a tailwind.

• Central Bank Buying: Watch for reports of further Asian accumulation. Large-scale reserve flows can underpin gold regardless of short-term headwinds.

The interplay of these variables will determine whether gold breaks lower or rebounds within its established range.

Final Word

Gold remains at a crossroads—torn between its traditional safe-haven status and the weight of rising interest rates and a strong dollar. This week, it showcased that duality, with rallies fueled by risk aversion followed by retracements tied to macroeconomic fundamentals.

For spread bettors, a flexible, responsive trading plan is essential. Whether using intraday levels or pairing gold exposure with related assets, adaptability is key. The days ahead promise more volatility, and those who remain technically aware and news-sensitive will likely stay ahead of the curve.

Pro Tip: Enter near key support zones, scale out on resistance touches, and keep stops just beyond volatile ranges. This layered approach prepares you for both sharp reversals and sustained breakouts.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.