Trading Update 3rd August 2025

Spot Gold Climbs on Red Sea Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Spot gold opened the week near $3,334 /oz, whispering caution amid mixed economic signals. By 30 July, prices eased to $3,310, pressured by firm U.S. rate-hike bets and resilient equity markets.
Thursday’s stronger-than-expected oil data and trade optimism briefly capped gains. Yet on 1 August, as the U.S. labour report disappointed, gold surged to $3,348, lured by renewed rate-cut hopes. The week closed around $3,360 on Sunday evening, revealing a $3,290–$3,400 trading corridor. Traders eyed support at $3,285 and resistance near $3,395, ideal for spread-bet entries and exits.

U.S. Jobs Report and Rate-Cut Outlook

Friday’s U.S. jobs data delivered a shock. July non-farm payrolls rose by just 73,000, far below the 110,000 consensus. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while prior months saw downward revisions.
These figures rocked rate-cut expectations. Fed futures markets priced in over a 75% chance of a September cut, up from 50% earlier in the week. A weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields bolstered gold’s appeal. Range-bound traders seized this catalyst, ramping long positions near key support and targeting the top of the week’s range.

Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand

Mid-week, escalating tensions in the Red Sea corridor reignited safe-haven flows. A missile and drone strike against a commercial tanker underlined shipping vulnerabilities. Insurance premiums for oil transit spiked, adding a risk premium to gold pricing.
Tensions between Iran and Israel flared in parallel, as border skirmishes and drone incursions prompted fresh concern. Even short-lived flare-ups tend to widen gold’s daily trading ranges. Spread-bet traders captured intraday spikes, aiming for quick profits when risk premiums surged above $3,350.

Trade Policy Headlines and Market Sentiment

Late July saw upbeat EU-U.S. trade talks, easing earlier tariff fears. Markets briefly shifted from safe havens to risk assets. Yet the deal retained 15% tariffs on most EU exports, maintaining a measure of uncertainty.
That ambivalence steered gold sideways until Friday’s jobs shock. Traders balanced renewed risk appetite with caution over incomplete trade accords. These shifting narratives created predictable gold pullbacks—a boon for spread-bet strategies centred on mixed sentiment.

Equity Market Correlations

Global shares yo-yoed alongside gold. The Dow fell 540 points on weak jobs data, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumbled over 1.5%. Equity weakness drove funds into gold, feeding intraday rallies.
Energy and materials stocks also felt the pinch, as risk-off sentiment spread. Gold-related mining shares held up well, mirroring bullion’s safe-haven status. Traders often hedged equity shorts with gold longs, capturing both downturns and protective rebounds.

Technical Levels and Spread-Bet Strategies

This week’s activity defined crucial technical thresholds for spot gold. Support held at $3,285–$3,300, tested thrice before Friday’s rebound—resistance formed near $3,395, capping Germany-style rate-cut rallies.
Savvy spread-bet users entered long positions around $3,305, placing stops under $3,280 to limit risk. On rallies past $3,380, they opened shorts, targeting $3,315 with stops above $3,405 and monitoring open interest spikes during news events, fine-tuning entry timing and scaling positions effectively.

What Lies Ahead? Key Drivers Next Week

Fed Speeches and September Outlook

Comments from Fed officials will clarify rate-cut timing. Any dovish signals could push gold above $3,400. Hawkish hints may test support again.

Middle East Shipping Security

Watch the Red Sea corridor for new incidents. Even minor disruptions can spark short-term gold rallies on risk premia.

Asian Demand Metrics

Indian and Chinese buying decisions, plus Asian import data, will shape physical demand forecasts. Strong purchases could underpin prices near $3,350.

Inflation and PMI Releases

Upcoming U.S. CPI and global PMI figures will influence real‐interest expectations. Higher inflation or weak manufacturing may drive gold back to $3,380–$3,400 range.

Broader Market Impacts

Currencies of net-gold importers also moved this week. The Indian rupee weakened amid surges in retail demand. The Australian dollar fell on the dollar’s Friday rally, but rebounded alongside gold.
Commodities like copper and silver mirrored gold’s swings, though to a lesser degree. Silver gained on hopes of industrial demand, trading between $48 and $51 per ounce. Platinum and palladium stayed range-bound as auto demand remained steady.

Core Takeaways for Spread Bettors

• $3,285–$3,300 served as robust support; $3,395–$3,400 formed reliable resistance.
• The U.S. jobs miss on 1 August triggered gold’s strongest rally mid-week.
• Geopolitical flashpoints in the Red Sea corridor offered short spikes.
• Trade policy twists created mid-week choppiness and range trading setups.
• Open interest and funding-rate spikes confirmed momentum shifts around key events.

Final Thoughts

This week’s gold market highlighted bullion’s dual role as a rate-cut hedge and safe haven. Spread-bet traders who combined solid technical zones with event-driven catalysts enjoyed pronounced swings. Next week promises further action, as economic, geopolitical and policy narratives continue to steer gold’s path. Stay agile, use tight stops, and ride the safe-haven waves to capture the metal’s clear risk-off flows.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.