Trading Update 13th July 2025

Gold Prices Rise as Geopolitical Risks Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Over the week from 6 to 13 July, spot gold exhibited a measured but consistent rally. Prices began near $3,320/oz on 6 July and climbed steadily to $3,353/oz by 11 July, an increase of almost 1%. This movement underscored a balancing act between heightened safe‑haven demand and ebbing optimism around trade negotiations. For spread betters and commodity investors, this week proved pivotal in shaping short‑term strategies.

Bullion’s enduring appeal shone through ongoing global uncertainty. Fresh tariff disputes and rising geopolitical strains underpinned the metal’s bullish tilt. At the same time, central banks remained active buyers, reinforcing gold’s reputation as a cornerstone of sovereign reserve diversification. These themes will continue to steer trading patterns over the coming days.

Central Bank Demand and Investor Flows

Central banks across Asia and Europe continued to accumulate gold, adding to reserves as they diversify away from major currencies. Official sector buying remains one of the primary pillars of demand in the bullion market. This sustained purchasing power lends a firm structural base under gold prices, even when other demand drivers falter.

On the retail side, exchange‑traded funds saw significant inflows. In the UK, about 35% of surveyed investors indicated plans to boost their gold allocations this quarter. This noticeable shift helped propel spot prices into the mid‑$3,300s. High‑net‑worth individuals and family offices also increased holdings, citing concerns over inflation and currency weakness.

Together, institutional and retail interest created a powerful one‑two punch for gold. It affirmed that, despite easing fears over central bank rate cuts, investors still value gold’s dual role as a hedge against market volatility and a store of value in uncertain times.

Geopolitical Tensions and Tariff Disputes

Geopolitical risk remained elevated throughout the week. The US administration announced fresh tariffs on imports from the EU, Canada, Brazil and several other trading partners. These measures stoked fears about a slowdown in global growth and industrial activity.

Gold benefited directly from this risk aversion, rallying as investors sought safe‑haven assets. Prices briefly touched $3,355/oz amid heightened tariff rhetoric. Traders noted that even the prospect of extended trade battles can trigger substantial flows into bullion.

Meanwhile, Middle East flare‑ups added another layer of uncertainty. Renewed skirmishes in and around Iran, coupled with sporadic Red Sea shipping lane disruptions, prompted traders to build in extra risk premiums. These combined geopolitical factors kept spot prices buoyant well into the second half of the week.

Trade‑War Sentiment and Currency Shifts

Tariff news exerted downward pressure on the US dollar, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers. A weaker greenback tends to support higher bullion prices, as investors outside the US require fewer local currency units to purchase the same amount of gold.

Concurrently, equity markets showed signs of hesitation. Both US and European stock indices fluctuated mid‑week, and bond yields paused their recent climb. In this environment, gold’s stability offered a useful counterbalance within diversified portfolios. It allowed fund managers to temper equity risk without sacrificing entirely their exposure to global growth themes.

With traders closely monitoring inflation prints and corporate earnings, gold’s low‑correlation characteristics made it an effective stabiliser. That dynamic played out in the low‑$3,350s, where prices found a comfortable trading range.

Spot Price Dynamics and Technical Benchmarks

Spot gold followed a clear pattern between $3,322/oz on 10 July and $3,354/oz by 11 July. This narrow but meaningful range highlighted two critical technical levels. First, support coalesced around $3,320, as buyers consistently stepped in near that threshold. Second, resistance emerged in the $3,360–$3,365 zone, where profit‑taking and risk‑off flows weighed on upside momentum.

Bulls have set their sights on a sustained break above $3,360, eyeing potential rallies toward $3,400. Conversely, sceptics argue that resolution of trade disputes could see prices slide back to $3,300 or even retest the $3,280 area. That tug‑of‑war keeps gold range‑bound, underscoring its current role as both a safe haven and portfolio hedge.

Mining Stocks, ETFs and Leverage Plays

Gold‑producing equities and related ETFs broadly outperformed general market benchmarks. Leading miners such as Newmont and Barrick posted solid gains as bullion prices gained traction. Gold mining stocks have outstripped broader indices year‑to‑date, rallying over 40%, and this week’s price moves added to that outperformance.

For spread betters, gold‑linked stocks and ETFs offered a leveraged avenue to play bullion rallies. These instruments magnify price movements, allowing nimble traders to amplify gains on bullish moves. Conversely, short positions in mining equities provided a vehicle to hedge against any sudden reversal in gold.

ETF flows remained robust, with net inflows suggesting continued investor confidence. Many market participants treat these funds as proxies for physical gold, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Economic Indicators and Fed Rate Outlook

Mid‑week US labour data surprised to the upside, with stronger job creation numbers than expected. That initially weighed on gold sentiment by suggesting the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts. However, bond yields subsequently eased from their highs, restoring some of gold’s relative attractiveness.

Sticky inflation readings in both the US and UK kept real yields low, an environment typically favourable for gold. Traders took this data blend as confirmation that gold can retain its shine even as central banks calibrate monetary policy.

Looking ahead, Fed comments, further economic releases and inflation metrics will remain central to gold’s near‑term trajectory. Traders will watch any shift in rate cut expectations closely, as changes in real yield calculations can drive significant bullion flows.

Strategic Spread Betting Guidance

For spread betters, several tactical considerations emerged:

• Support Zone: $3,320–$3,330 offers a reliable entry range on dips.

• Resistance Zone: $3,360–$3,365 marks the critical barrier to watch for bullish breakouts.

• Pivot Level: $3,345 serves as a short‑term fulcrum for intraday trades.

A bullish strategy may pay off if geopolitical tensions escalate further or if central bank buying intensifies. Conversely, a breakdown below $3,320 on clear signs of trade‑war détente could open the door to $3,300 and perhaps $3,280.

Intraday traders should remain alert to headline‑driven spikes and dips. Rapid responses to tariff announcements or shipping‑lane updates can yield profitable quick trades. Combining technical cues with real‑time news triggers is key to maintaining an edge.

Key Themes to Monitor

Spread betters should keep a close eye on the following drivers:

1. Tariff Developments – New US or Chinese measures could swiftly alter demand forecasts.

2. Geopolitical Flashpoints – Any escalation in the Middle East or Red Sea will boost safe‑haven flows.

3. Central Bank Purchases – Continued official buying locks in structural support under prices.

4. Economic Releases – Inflation, employment and GDP data will shape rate outlooks and real yields.

5. Technical Breakouts – Week‑end close and opening gaps around $3,360 and $3,320 will guide trend‑following trades.

Active monitoring of these factors will help traders anticipate range expansions or breakdowns, allowing for more precise positioning.

Summary and Outlook

During the week of 6–13 July, gold traded firmly in the $3,330–$3,355 corridor, underpinned by tariff shocks, central bank demand and risk‑averse flows. Equity indices wavered, while labour and inflation data offered mixed signals. Gold miners and ETFs outperformed, providing leveraged access for spread betters.

Key technical levels sit at $3,320 (support) and $3,360 (resistance), framing the immediate trading range. With fresh headlines on trade, geopolitics and monetary policy looming, gold remains highly sensitive to both fundamental and technical catalysts.

For spread betters, the coming week promises ample opportunity. Stay nimble, follow the five core themes, and use clear benchmarks for entries and exits. With gold‘s role as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier undiminished, agile traders can thrive in the next wave of market volatility.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.