Trading Update 20th July 2025

Gold Prices Surge: What Drove the Market This Week?

Spot gold began the week on 13 July around $3,333 per ounce, as traders weighed U.S. inflation data and global uncertainties. Early in the week, softer employment figures and steady consumer prices hinted at delayed rate cuts. This pushed gold lower into the $3,330–3,335 range. By mid‑week, renewed U.S.‑China trade tensions and a dip in the dollar reignited safe‑haven demand. Gold climbed steadily, finishing on 20 July near $3,368, a weekly gain of roughly 1%–1.2%.

These daily swings underline gold’s dual role as both a hedge against inflation and a refuge from geopolitical shocks. For spread bettors, these clear intraday and interday ranges offered precise entry and exit thresholds. The $3,330 support and $3,370 resistance levels defined a trading corridor, making it easier to manage risk with tight stop losses and profit targets.

Impact on Gold‑Related Stocks

Gold’s price moves drove sharp reactions in gold mining equities. Early in the week, softer gold prices led to a 1% decline among major producers, as sentiment waned. By mid-week, when gold rallied, mid-cap miners posted gains of 2%–3%. Large producers also saw 1%–2% uplifts, reflecting gold’s recovery.

In London, FTSE 100 mining stocks outperformed peers, while smaller junior miners exhibited heightened volatility. Spread bettors could exploit these moves by pairing long gold bets with short positions in lagging equity names. Index‑linked spread bets on mining ETFs also proved profitable during the rebound.

Market chatter highlighted that rising production costs and labour strikes at key mines added supply concerns. This fundamental pressure supports higher long‑term projections for gold. For active traders, monitoring corporate news alongside spot gold data became crucial to anticipate equity reactions.

Political Drivers: Trade Tensions and Safe‑Haven Flows

This week’s most notable political factor was a spike in U.S.‑China trade tensions. Washington’s threat to impose new tariffs from 1 August reignited fears of slowing global growth. Investors sought safe havens, driving gold demand. Spread bettors found rapid price jumps around official announcements and media leaks, using tight stop orders near key news times.

Another driver was softening commentary from Federal Reserve officials. While they held rates steady, hints of possible cuts later this year weakened the dollar. A weaker dollar typically boosts the price of gold in other currencies. Traders who anticipated this dynamic positioned themselves long in gold ahead of the dovish Fed rhetoric.

In Europe, political uncertainty in Italy and Spain also played a part. Budget debates in Rome and elections in Madrid created unease in equity markets, diverting funds toward gold. This amplified gold’s appeal as both a hedge and an uncorrelated asset.

U.S. Dollar and Inflation Influence

The U.S. dollar index fell by roughly 0.5% over the week. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. This dynamic served as a key support level as gold sought to gain above $3,350 per ounce. Traders watching currency crosses noted that sterling’s modest strength against the dollar helped UK buyers consider fresh long positions.

U.S. inflation held at elevated levels, with core consumer price inflation still above 2%. Although this discouraged immediate rate cuts, it also maintained gold’s role as an inflation hedge. Spread bettors exploited the seesaw between inflation fears and rate‑cut hopes by timing bets around key data releases.

Weekly oil prices and manufacturing PMI data also influenced inflation expectations. Traders utilised cross-asset correlations to refine their gold positions, coupling gold bets with those in energy and industrial metals for a more nuanced strategy.

Technical and Sentiment Indicators

Technical charts show gold respected the 50‑day moving average near $3,333, bouncing off that level twice. The relative strength index (RSI) hovered in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. MACD lines crossed bullishly mid‑week, signalling momentum was shifting upwards.

Key resistance now sits near $3,380, and a break above could open a path to $3,400. Support remains firm at $3,330, with a secondary floor at $3,300. Spread bettors can utilise these levels to guide range-bound strategies, setting entries near support and targets just below resistance levels.

Sentiment indicators, including the Commitment of Traders report, showed a modest increase in long speculative positions. This aligns with gold’s safe‑haven narrative. Combining technical signals with sentiment data helps refine timing for both trend‑following and contrarian spread bets.

Supply‑Demand Fundamentals and Central Bank Buying

Aside from speculative flows, central bank purchases continue to be a critical demand driver. Several emerging-market central banks purchased gold in June to diversify their reserves. While China’s gold imports slowed slightly, other nations, including India and Turkey, continued to maintain robust buying.

On the supply side, gold mine output grew marginally; however, geopolitical risks persist at major sites in South Africa and Canada. Labour unrest at key mines and logistical bottlenecks add pressure to future supply. This mix of steady demand and constrained supply supports a bullish long‑term outlook.

For spread bettors, these fundamentals provide a foundation for medium-term positions. Understanding that mines face rising input costs and central banks continue to buy helps justify holding longer-dated spread bets, beyond just day-trading gold’s intraday ranges.

Key Spread‑Betting Strategies This Week

• Range Trading

Gold hovered between $3,330 and $3,370.

Place long bets near $3,330 and short near $3,370.

Use tight stops (~$10) to manage risk.

• Event‑Driven Bets

Trade around Fed comments, trade‑talk deadlines, and central bank updates.

Set alerts for tariff announcements and election results.

• Correlation Trades

Pair long gold positions with short energy or industrial metals during risk‑off days.

• Volatility Plays

Use volatility‑based instruments to profit from sudden spikes near key sessions.

Adapting these strategies to your risk profile can help exploit both gold’s safe‑haven status and its technical patterns.

What to Watch in the Week Ahead

• 1 August Tariff Deadline
  Renewed threats could spark fresh safe‑haven bids.
• Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
  Diverging from expectations might trigger sharp gold swings.
• US Employment Data
  Non‑farm payrolls on Friday could shift rate‑cut probabilities.
• European Political Events
  Italy’s budget vote and Spain’s coalition talks may unsettle equity markets.
• Chinese Economic Indicators
  PMI and trade data will shape risk sentiment and gold demand.

Keeping a close watch on these events will be vital for timing spread‑betting positions.

At‑a‑Glance Summary

• Weekly Range: Gold moved between $3,330–$3,368, ending up 1%–1.2%.
• Equity Impact: Gold miners saw early dips then rallied, offering paired trading chances.
• Political Drivers: US‑China trade, Fed dovish hints, EU political shifts steered safe‑haven flows.
• Technical Levels: Key support at $3,330, resistance at $3,380. Watch MACD and RSI.
• Fundamentals: Central bank buying and supply constraints underlie longer‑term gains.
• Trader Strategies: Range trades, event‑driven positions, correlation plays and volatility bets proved key.

Gold’s mix of technical ranges, political catalysts and solid fundamentals created several profitable spread‑betting scenarios this week. Keep monitoring economic data, geopolitical developments and central bank actions for the next leg of gold’s journey.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.