Trading Update 22nd June 2025

Gold Prices Surge Amid Global Unrest: Weekly Market Breakdown

From 15 June, investors flocked to gold as geopolitical tensions intensified. Clashes between Israel and Iran raised fears of regional spillover, and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict added to concerns.

Safe-haven demand surged, and spot gold jumped as funds shifted away from risk assets. Traders cited the heightened uncertainty and rising conflict risks.

This rapid move underlined gold’s role as a crisis hedge. Many spread bettors found early week entries around the initial dip.

Spot Gold Price Movements

Spot gold began the week at nearly $3,385 per ounce. By 22 June, it peaked at around $3,451. A mid-week pullback on 18 June saw prices dip to about $3,366.

The dip followed US statements on slower rate-cut plans. However, fresh news of conflict reignited buying, and investors pushed spot gold back above $3,440.

Overall, gold climbed roughly 2% over seven days. Intraday swings of $10–$20 created clear trade setups for spread bettors.

Central Bank and ETF Influence

Major central banks continued adding to gold reserves. China and Russia led the buying. This central-bank demand supported higher prices.

Meanwhile, exchange-traded funds showed renewed inflows, and global gold-backed ETF assets rose steadily. The combined impact of central banks and ETFs emphasised strong structural demand.

For traders, this backdrop offered both trend-following and reversal opportunities. Watching reserve and ETF data remains crucial.

Fed Policy and Inflation Factors

On 18 June, the Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Officials indicated rate cuts might come more slowly. Gold dipped briefly as higher rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Yet inflation data showed modest but persistent price pressures. Markets now expect rate cuts later in 2025. That delayed easing keeps gold’s appeal fresh.

Spread bettors may watch Fed statements closely. In today’s market, each word can sway gold by $5–$10 per ounce.

Equity Market Interplay

Gold’s rally coincided with choppy equity moves. The S&P 500 and Dow lost ground in New York as risk appetite waned. Commodity and defence stocks outperformed.

In Europe and Asia, energy and defence firms rose. Travel and leisure names lagged amid safe-haven flows. This divergence created pair-trade opportunities.

Traders noted that rising gold often signals broader market caution. Combining equity-gold spread bets offered balanced risk.

Emerging Market Dynamics

Higher gold and inflation fears strained emerging economies. India saw gold jewellery sales dip, but investment demand held firm. The central bank paused active reserve purchases despite rising holdings.

Currencies like the Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar. Falling equity markets and gold premiums pressured local rates.

For spread bettors, gold vs emerging-market currency pairs gained interest. These trades offered both hedging and directional plays amid volatility.

Technical Levels and Trade Zones

Key support levels emerged around $3,360–$3,380 per ounce, which held during the mid-week pullback. Resistance formed at $3,450–$3,460, near the week’s high.

A breakout above $3,500 may signal stronger momentum. Meanwhile, a drop below $3,350 could open a slide to $3,300.

Spread bettors should use tight stops around these levels. Clear entry and exit zones can manage risk in this volatile market.

Forecasts and Analyst Views

Analysts see gold trading between $3,100 and $3,500 through mid-2025. If geopolitical and fiscal risks rise, a bullish scenario points to $3,700- $4,000.

Some banks forecast $3,700 by year-end, driven by central-bank buying and ETF inflows. For medium-term gains, traders might focus on breakout plays from $3,400 to $3,500.

Sticking to clear technical and fundamental signals helps in navigating conflicting forecasts.

Critical Risk Scenarios for Traders

1. Conflict Escalation
If tensions spread, gold could surge past $3,600. Traders may take long positions on sudden spikes.

2. De-escalation
A diplomatic pause could push gold toward $3,200–$3,300. Short positions or fade plays may suit this scenario.

3. Policy Shifts
Faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts might spark a rally. Conversely, hawkish signals could trigger a pullback.

Monitoring news feeds alongside charts remains vital for timing trades.

Trading Tactics and Tips

1. Scalping: Use $3,360 support for quick intraday buys.
2. Straddle Plays: Enter ahead of key Fed or geopolitical announcements.
3. Pair Trades: Combine gold vs equities or currencies for balanced risk.
4. Protective Stops: Place stops just below support or just above resistance.

This disciplined approach helps manage sudden volatility spikes and reversals.

Conclusion

From 15 to 22 June, gold rose from $3,385 to over $3,450 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions, Fed policy, and central-bank buying drove the move.

Equities faltered while gold found fresh buying. Emerging markets showed mixed reactions. Volatility created clear spread-betting opportunities across directional and range-bound plays.

Key levels at $3,360 and $3,450 define near-term zones. Keep an eye on Middle Eastern conflict, Fed communications, and reserve flows. With tight risk management, spread bettors can seize the next wave of market moves.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.