Trading Update 4th May 2025

Gold Price Dips as Traders React to Mixed Signals

The gold market experienced a volatile week from 28 April to 4 May 2025. Spot gold slipped over 3%, falling from $3,343.99 to $3,240.72 per ounce. Political uncertainty, economic data, and shifting sentiment shaped the move. While safe-haven demand remained in place, traders were quick to react to changes in interest rate expectations and global risk appetite.

Gold’s slide affected miners and ETFs, while spread betting strategies evolved as traders looked to capitalise on sharp intraday swings.

Spot Gold Price Movements This Week

The week began with gold showing signs of strength. On Monday, 28th April, prices hovered near $3,343.99 per ounce. Early support came from cautious sentiment around U.S.–China relations and ongoing concerns over Middle East tensions.

However, that momentum didn’t last. The U.S. dollar gained ground on strong economic data as the week progressed. This made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, triggering steady selling pressure.

By midweek, spot gold had dropped to around $3,289. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report on Thursday pushed yields higher, prompting a further dip. Gold fell to $3,239.16 per ounce by Friday before settling just above $3,240 over the weekend.

Overall, the metal lost 3.1% over the seven days. This marked gold’s most significant weekly decline in over a month, snapping a strong run that began earlier in the year.

Political Factors Driving the Market

Geopolitical developments had a mixed effect on gold. Traders closely watched renewed trade threats between the U.S. and China. The White House hinted at potential new tariffs on key imports, fuelling global tension. This typically supports gold, but the market seemed more focused on interest rate direction this week.

In the Middle East, tensions remained high. The risk of new sanctions on Iranian oil exports added to uncertainty, although no significant escalation occurred—this limited gold’s ability to regain upward momentum.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady. Some policymakers hinted at the potential for rate cuts later in the year, which might normally boost gold. However, strong labour market data suggested the Fed may hold off longer than expected. That weighed heavily on bullish sentiment.

Gold Stocks and Market Sentiment

Gold mining stocks mirrored the metal’s movement. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dropped sharply early in the week, falling nearly 5% before recovering slightly by Friday. Despite this drop, the sector remains in the green for 2025, showing a double-digit gain year-to-date.

Broader equity markets had a more positive week. The S&P 500 rose following upbeat economic news, with strong consumer confidence and employment data boosting optimism. This shift into riskier assets took the shine off gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Gold ETFs also saw mixed flows. Chinese demand remained strong, with local ETFs reporting record April inflows. However, Western investors pulled back slightly, locking in profits after recent highs.

Spread Betting Opportunities and Strategies

The recent dip offered clear opportunities for active spread bettors. Those watching key technical levels had several profitable chances to short gold during intraday rallies—sharp reversals following U.S. data releases provided ideal entry points for short-term trades.

Shorting gold ahead of Thursday’s U.S. jobs report would have produced quick gains. However, as bond yields jumped and the dollar strengthened, gold dropped nearly $50 within hours.

Calendar spread strategies also worked well, particularly for traders anticipating volatility around central bank announcements—gold’s reaction to changing rate expectations created clear trends for those trading longer-term positions.

Mining stock spreads proved trickier. While gold fell sharply, some miners held up better than expected. Using gold-to-miner ratio strategies required tight risk control, especially as earnings reports added stock-specific volatility.

Looking ahead, monitoring ETF flows, Chinese demand, and macroeconomic data remains key. The following big opportunities may arise from inflation numbers or renewed geopolitical flare-ups.

Outlook for the Coming Week

The gold market remains on edge as traders brace for the next batch of U.S. economic data. Non-farm payrolls, due on 9th May, could shift rate expectations again. If job growth slows, the Fed may lean further towards a rate cut, which would likely support gold prices.

On the political front, markets are watching for developments in the Middle East or around U.S.–China trade. Either could spark a safe-haven rush.

Technical levels are clear for now. Gold faces immediate resistance near $3,275 and $3,300. A break above could trigger fresh buying. Support lies around $3,200 and then $3,150. A move below those levels might accelerate selling pressure.

For spread bettors, flexibility remains key. The market is shifting quickly, with data and headlines triggering strong moves in either direction. Stick to well-defined entry and exit points, and always protect positions with stop-loss orders.

Final Thoughts

This past week reminded traders that gold remains highly sensitive to macro and geopolitical developments. With spot prices down over 3%, markets are recalibrating their expectations. Whether this marks the start of a deeper correction or a pause in the broader uptrend depends on the week ahead.

For now, traders should closely monitor central bank commentary, U.S. dollar trends, and geopolitical headlines. Volatility remains elevated, which means opportunities for savvy spread bettors.

Stay alert, stick to your trading plan, and watch for signs of trend reversals or breakouts. Gold may be down this week, but sentiment can shift fast in this market.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.