Trading Update 6th July 2025

Gold Dips and Spikes: The Key Drivers Behind Last Week’s Price Swings

Between June 29 and July 6, 2025, spot gold traded within a tight range of US$3,300 to US$3,350 per ounce. It opened at US$3,307 on 29 June, climbed to US$3,348 by 2 July and then eased back to US$3,311 by week’s end. This modest fluctuation reflected a balance between easing trade tensions and ongoing economic uncertainty. Traders found the calm environment ideal for short‑term spread bets, exploiting intraday reversals triggered by fresh political or data headlines.

Stock Market Reactions

Gold‑related equities saw noticeable intraday swings in response to bullion price shifts. Mining firms and gold ETFs rallied as analysts raised medium‑term forecasts. When spot gold peaked near US$3,350, shares in leading producers jumped by over 2%, reflecting bullish sentiment.

Meanwhile, broader equity indices diverged. US futures dipped following trade‑deal progress, while UK and European markets softened as capital rotated into safe‑haven assets. Energy and tech stocks underperformed on July 1 and 2. Spread betters benefited from these rotations, locking in gains on both rising gold stocks and sliding broader markets.

Trade Policy and Tariff News

Midweek, the US extended a tariff reprieve deadline until 1 August, easing immediate trade concerns. That announcement drove gold down by nearly 1%, as safe‑haven demand ticked lower. Later, talk of new tariffs on BRICS‑aligned countries added a fresh layer of uncertainty, nudging spot gold back toward US$3,312.

For spread betters, these tariff headlines offered clear reversal opportunities. Short positions around reprieve announcements and long positions on renewed tariff threats proved profitable. Traders found tight ranges and high liquidity to be ideal for intraday strategies tied to shifting trade-policy risks.

Geopolitical Tensions and Safe‑Haven Demand

Persistent Middle Eastern tensions underpinned gold’s appeal as a safe‑haven asset. Even though oil markets dominated energy headlines, bullion drew support as a portfolio diversifier. Any flare‑up in the Strait of Hormuz or regional skirmishes triggered quick gold rallies of US$10–15 per ounce.

Conversely, news of de-escalation prompted swift profit-taking. Spread betters could fade spikes above US$3,340 when hopes for a ceasefire emerged. This two-sided dynamic rewarded agile traders who closely followed headlines and executed rapid entries and exits around conflict-related moves.

Central Bank Activity and Holdings

Several central banks continued to add to their gold reserves during the week. Their purchases ranged from 5 to 15 tonnes, underlining gold’s role as a strategic hedge. These net buys supported prices midweek, even as trade‑related selling pressure emerged.

Traders watching official data could anticipate minor price bumps. For spread bettors, positioning long ahead of reserve‑data releases offered an edge. Conversely, shorting immediately after sales‑neutral announcements helped lock in quick profits as volatility faded.

Analyst Outlooks and Momentum Signals

Leading banks raised their average gold price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing persistent fiscal and geopolitical risks. Yet many warned of a near‑term pullback phase, suggesting consolidation around US$3,300 before any sustained rally. Momentum indicators flashed overbought signals when gold topped US$3,345.

For spread betters, these mixed signals underscored the value of fade strategies near range extremes. Short‑term sellers could target US$3,330 as a re‑entry level after sharp rallies. Meanwhile, bulls could await dips toward US$3,300 to rebuild long exposure before any fresh breakouts.

Demand Fundamentals and Inventories

On the demand side, China’s June gold import data showed a slight slowdown. Imports remained flat month‑on‑month, dampening near‑term consumption forecasts for the world’s largest buyer. In parallel, US weekly inventory reports indicated rising warehouse stock levels, pressuring nearby futures.

These fundamentals kept a lid on gold’s upside. Spread betters capitalised on this by shorting gold when import data disappointed. Conversely, any surprise dip in US stock builds triggered quick long covers and snap rallies toward US$3,335.

Strategic Analysis for Spread Betting

Short‑term traders should expect gold to oscillate between US$3,300 and US$3,350 until new catalysts emerge. Geopolitical or data surprises will spark sharp, fleeting spikes and dips in the market. Range-bound strategies and intraday scalps are well-suited to this environment.

Medium‑term, official reserve purchases and sustained trade risks could drive gold above US$3,400. Spread betters may use calendar‑spread or forward‑roll techniques to play this shift. Long‑dated positions can capture broader repricing if macro uncertainty persists.

In the longer term, weaker economic growth and higher debt could eventually push gold toward US$3,800. Portfolio hedgers and long-term spread position holders should monitor debt ceiling debates and fiscal policy changes for entry cues.

Key Drivers This Week

1. Trade policy headlines: Tariff deadline extensions and new threat discussions created rapid gold moves.
2. Geopolitical risks: Middle Eastern tensions remained a powerful driver for safe‑haven bids.
3. Central bank activity: Reserve purchases underpinned midweek rallies despite trade relief news.
4. Demand signals: Flat Chinese imports and rising US inventories limited upside momentum.

Spread betters who tracked these drivers and aligned their position sizes accordingly found clear entry and exit points in a choppy market.

What to Watch Next

• Tariff deadlines: Watch for US trade‑policy announcements around 8–10 July for fresh volatility.
• US economic data: Inflation and jobs reports may shift rate‑expectation dynamics and impact gold.
• Geopolitical flashpoints: Any new regional conflicts or threats to major trade routes could spark rallies.
• Central bank purchases: Reserve‑data releases will offer short‑term price support signals.

By staying alert to these catalysts, spread betters can anticipate gold’s next directional leg. Use disciplined risk controls and clear stops to navigate the inevitable swings.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.