Trading Update 8th February 2026

Gold Price Analysis – What Drove the February 2026 Surge?

The first week of February 2026 proved to be a rollercoaster for the global gold market. Investors faced a whirlwind of geopolitical tension, shifting economic data, and a fluctuating US Dollar. Spot gold began the week near $2,350 per ounce, reflecting a cautious but steady start to the month. By the time markets closed on 8th February, the yellow metal had climbed to a peak of $2,415 before settling. This volatility offered a prime landscape for spread bettors looking to capitalise on short-term price swings.

Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand

The primary driver for gold’s upward momentum this week was a sudden escalation in the Middle East. News broke on 3rd February regarding a breakdown in maritime security talks near the Strait of Hormuz. Traders immediately reacted to the threat of disrupted trade routes by moving capital into safe-haven assets. Gold prices jumped by $25 in a single afternoon as the “fear trade” took hold of the pits. This move reminded everyone why gold remains the ultimate hedge against political instability.

Simultaneously, the situation in Eastern Europe grew more complex as new trade restrictions took effect. The European Union implemented a new round of sanctions targeting specific mineral exports. While these did not hit gold directly, they soured the broader market sentiment and weakened the Euro. A weaker Euro often pushes investors toward the perceived safety of bullion. By mid-week, gold had firmly established a new support level above $2,380.

Political rhetoric in the United States also played a significant role in price discovery this week. Internal debates over the 2026 budget raised concerns about long-term debt sustainability and future inflation. Gold traditionally thrives when investors worry about the purchasing power of fiat currencies. The political stalemate in Washington acted as a persistent tailwind for gold prices throughout the seven days. This uncertainty made it difficult for bears to push prices lower despite some positive employment data.

The Federal Reserve and the US Dollar

While politics provided the spark, the Federal Reserve provided the fuel for gold’s movement. On 5th February, the Fed released minutes from its latest meeting, hinting at a “pause and hold” strategy. This suggested that interest rates would remain steady at 5.25% for the foreseeable future. Markets had previously hoped for a rate cut, but the news was not entirely bearish for gold. High-interest rates usually hurt gold, yet the market viewed the Fed’s tone as “dovish enough” to support prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened significantly in the latter half of the week. Gold is priced in Dollars, so a falling greenback makes the metal cheaper for international buyers. We saw a surge in physical demand from Asian markets as the Dollar dipped against the Yen and the Pound. This buying pressure helped gold break through the psychological resistance level of $2,400 on 7th February. Traders watching the DXY saw a clear inverse correlation unfold in real time.

Inflation data from the previous month also lingered in market participants’ minds this week. Although headline inflation showed signs of cooling, core prices remained stubbornly high in specific sectors. Real yields on government bonds struggled to rise, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. This environment allowed gold to maintain its lustre even as other commodities faced selling pressure. Spread bettors focused on the “Gold-Dollar” pair and found plenty of entries as the currency fluctuated.

Impact on Mining Stocks and Global Indices

The move in spot gold naturally rippled through the equity markets, specifically targeting mining stocks. Major players like Barrick Gold and Newmont saw their share prices climb by 4% to 6% over the week. Investors often view these stocks as “leveraged bets” on the cost of the metal itself. When gold rises by 1%, the mining companies usually see much larger percentage gains. This trend helped the FTSE 350 Mining Index outperform the broader London market this week.

However, the news was not equally positive for all energy and resource sectors. High gold prices often coincide with a “risk-off” sentiment that can hurt traditional industrial stocks. We saw the FTSE 100 struggle to make headway as investors rotated out of banks and into precious metals. This rotation poses a unique challenge for spread bettors managing diverse portfolios across asset classes. Understanding the relationship between bullion and blue-chip stocks was vital for success this week.

In North America, gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) reported their highest inflows since late 2025. This institutional buying provides a solid floor for prices and signals long-term confidence in the metal. The surge in ETF volume often leads to higher volatility in pre-market trading. Small-scale traders had to navigate wider spreads during these periods of high activity. Overall, the equity market reflected the bullish sentiment in the commodity pits.

Climate Factors and Seasonal Demand

Weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere also influenced market logistics and sentiment this week. An unseasonably cold snap hit major refining hubs in Switzerland and Canada. Temperatures plummeted to -25°C to -30°C (-13°F to -22°F), causing minor delays in physical transport. While this did not stop trading, it created a slight “tightness” in the physical delivery market. These small logistical hurdles often add a few dollars to the spot price during the winter months.

We are also entering a period of high seasonal demand across several major economies. Traditional festivals and wedding seasons in South Asia typically see a spike in gold jewellery sales. Even though prices are near record highs, the cultural demand for gold remains incredibly resilient. Wholesalers began restocking their inventories this week in anticipation of these events. This steady underlying demand helps prevent sharp crashes when the “hot money” decides to exit.

Technical Analysis and Future Outlook

From a technical perspective, gold ended the week in a powerful position. It closed on 8th February at $2,408, safely above its 50-day moving average. Technical analysts point to a “bull flag” pattern forming on the daily charts, which suggests more upside. The next significant resistance sits at $2,450, a level gold has not tested in several months. Many traders are now looking for a period of consolidation before the next big move.

Looking ahead to next week, the focus will likely shift back to the US consumer price data. If inflation remains sticky, gold could see another leg up as a hedge against rising costs. Spread bettors should keep a close eye on the $2,380 support level to ensure the trend remains intact. Any sudden de-escalation in the Middle East could lead to a quick “profit-taking” sell-off. Staying informed on both the charts and the headlines is the only way to navigate this market.

The week of 1st to 8th February 2026 proved that gold is still the king of the mountain. It managed to fight off a strong Dollar and navigate complex global politics with ease. Whether you are a long-term investor or a short-term spread bettor, gold provides ample opportunities. As we head into mid-February, the stage is set for an exciting spring in the commodity markets. Keep your eyes on the news and your stops tight as the volatility continues.

Check out the up-to-date and historic gold prices here.